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80 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. The long-run impact of digitalization on trade patterns
abstractWe employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth; (ii) digitalization reducing trade costs, (iii) the shift to online sales (e-commerce), (iv) the reduced need for physical face-to-face interaction leading to lower trade costs; and (v) changes in data policies in response to these technologies which also impacts trade costs. We distinguish between a convergence scenario with larger productivity growth and trade cost reductions for low-income economies and a core scenario with uniform changes. The simulations generate three main sets of findings. First, digitalization is expected to provide a strong boost to global trade growth and a shift from merchandise trade towards services, and in particular, digitally deliverable services (DDS). With digitalization, global trade growth rises from 2.3% in the baseline to 4.2% annually between 2018-2040. The share of services trade will rise to 37.2% by 2040 with digitalization compared to 27% in the baseline, while the share of DDS in total trade rises to 17.4% by 2040 (compared to 12.4% in the baseline). Second, digitalization can be a force for inclusion, enabling low-income and lower-middle-income economies to raise their share in global trade and income. Trade growth in DDS is projected to be highest in low-income and lower-middle-income economies in the convergence scenario and the share of low-income and lower-middle-income economies in total trade would increase to 10.6% (compared to 8.2% in the baseline). Third, digitalization is projected to change the organization of production and patterns of revealed comparative advantage (RCA). The share of imported intermediates in exports rises in services but falls in manufacturing. In the convergence scenario, low-income economies will expand their RCA in DDS, although high-income economies will continue to retain a strong RCA in this sector
Bekkers, Eddy; Kalachyhin, Hryhorii; Teh, Robert;2025
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link Link 2. The long-run impact of digitalization on trade patterns
Bekkers, Eddy; Kalachyhin, Hryhorii; Teh, Robert;2025
Type: Working Paper;
Availability:
3. Potential economic effects of a global trade conflict : projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO global trade model
abstractThe WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs. The study provides three main insights. First, the projected macroeconomic effects in the medium run are considerable. A global trade conflict started in 2019 would lead to a reduction in global GDP in 2022 of about 1.96% and a reduction in global trade of about 17% compared to the baseline. For context global GDP fell about 2.1% and global trade 12.4% in the global financial crisis of 2009. Second, behind the single-digit aggregate production effects there are much larger, double-digit sectoral production effects in many countries, leading to a painful adjustment process. In general, a global trade conflict leads to a reallocation of resources away from the most efficient allocation based on comparative advantage. Third, the large swings in sectoral production lead to substantial labour displacement. On average 1.15% and 1.74% of high-skilled and low-skilled workers respectively would leave their initial sector of employment.
Bekkers, Eddy; Teh, Robert;2019
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
Link Link Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations)
4. The WTO Global Trade Model : technical documentation
abstractThis document provides a technical description of the WTO Global Trade Model developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The model can be used to generate global trade projections and to assess the medium and long run effects of a wide range of global and national trade policies. The WTO Global Trade Model is a recursive dynamic extension of the static GTAP model (Corong et al., 2017), and implements a parsimonious approach to incorporate monopolistic competition - i.e., Eithier-Krugman or Melitz-type firm heterogeneity - in the standard GTAP model following Bekkers and Francois (2018).
Aguiar, Angel; Corong, Erwin L.; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Bekkers, Eddy; Koopman, Robert; Teh, Robert;2019
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link
Link Link Link Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations)
5. PTAs and the incidence of antidumping disputes
Prusa, Thomas J.; Teh, Robert; Zhu, Min;2022
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations)
6. E-commerce and developing country-SME participation in global value chains
abstractTwo far-reaching developments have increased the trade opportunities for SMEs in developing countries. Firstly, the rise of the internet and advances in ICT have reduced trade-related information and communication costs. Secondly, the international fragmentation of production has increased the opportunities for SMEs to specialize in narrow activities at various stages along the production chain. Using firm-level data from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, we test whether digital connectivity, as captured by whether a firm has a website or not, facilitates the participation of manufacturing SMEs from developing countries in global value chains (GVCs). We find robust evidence that digital connectivity facilitates the participation of manufacturing SMEs in GVCs in terms of both backward and forward linkages. SMEs with a website tend to import a higher share of their inputs used for production and export a higher share of their sales as compared to SMEs without a website. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the effect of having a website on GVC participation is stronger for SMEs than for large firms. Beyond digital connectivity at the firm level, we also assess the role of a country's ICT infrastructure in facilitating GVC participation of SMEs. We find that SMEs tend to participate more in GVCs in countries where a higher share of the population has fixed broadband subscriptions. This result also holds if we control for other country-level factors such as the quality of logistics services, rule of law and access to finance. Our findings can provide guidance for policy makers in developing countries about the importance of investing in ICT infrastructure, creating a regulatory and policy environment conducive to e-commerce, and providing SMEs and workers with the digital skills and knowledge to use ICT technologies efficiently.
Lanz, Rainer; Lundquist, Kathryn; Mansio, Grégoire; Maurer, Andreas; Teh, Robert;2018
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
Link Link Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations)
7. Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation
abstractRising current account and merchandise trade imbalances marked the years before the global financial and economic crisis. These imbalances either contributed to or precipitated the crisis and to the extent that they create systemic risks, it is desirable that they be reduced. There are many factors related to macroeconomic, structural, exchange rate and financial policies that contributed to the imbalances. The inability to manage these issues at the international level reflects the “coherence gap” in global governance. This paper examines the contribution that the WTO can make in its three areas of activities — negotiations, rule-making and dispute settlement — to deal with trade imbalances and with the main factors leading to them, including exchange rate misalignments. First, market opening efforts in services, including in the area of financial services, can reduce policy-related distortions and market imperfections in surplus countries that lead to the build-up of unsustainable imbalances. Second, in the context of a broad international effort to coordinate macroeconomic, exchange rate and structural policies to deal with the roots of imbalances (the first-best solution), there is a general efficiency argument that could be made for the use of WTO-triggered trade actions to enforce cooperative behaviour towards rebalancing. Absent this first-best response, trade rules alone would not provide an efficient instrument to compensate for the weaknesses in international co-operation in macroeconomic, exchange rate and structural policies
Marchetti, Juan A.; Ruta, Michele; Teh, Robert;2021
Availability: Link Link
8. Trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty
Bekkers, Eddy; Teh, Robert;2021
Type: Aufsatz im Buch; Book section;
9. Provisions on electronic commerce in regional trade agreements
abstractThis paper reviews the different types of provisions explicitly addressing electronic commerce (e-commerce) in regional trade agreements (RTAs). The analysis covers the 275 RTAs currently in force and notified to the WTO as of May 2017. The analysis shows that e-commerce provisions have become increasingly more detailed but remain highly heterogeneous. The most common types of e-commerce provisions refer to the promotion of e-commerce, cooperation activities and the moratorium on customs duties. Other e-commerce provisions concern the domestic legal framework as well as more specific issues, such as electronic authentication, consumer protection, personal information protection and paperless trading.
Monteiro, José-Antonio; Teh, Robert;2017
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link
Link Link Citations: 3 (based on OpenCitations)
10. Supply chain finance and SMEs : evidence from international factoring data
abstractThe unbundling of trade across regions offers unique opportunities for SMEs to integrate into global trade notably through their involvement into supply-chains. With supply-chains shifting and expanding into new regions of the world, the challenge for SMEs to accessing financing remains an important one; in many developing and emerging market economies, the capacity of the local financial sector to support new traders is limited. Moreover, after the financial crisis, several global banks have "retrenched", for various reasons. In this context, supply-chain finance arrangements, and other alternative forms of financing such as through factoring, have proven increasingly popular among traders. This paper shows that factoring has a positive effect in allowing SMEs to access international trade, in countries in which it is available. Factoring also appears to be employed by firms involved in global supply chains. We employ for the first time data on factoring from Factor Chain International (FCI), the most extensive dataset on factoring available at the moment, for the period of 2008-2015. Using an instrumentation strategy, we identify a strong, stable effect of factoring on SMEs access to capital for some of the main traders in the world.
Auboin, Marc; Smythe, Harry; Teh, Robert;2016
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link Link