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All co-authors model information spf prognoseverfahren time stochastic rates survey varying data rate professional horizon wirtschaftsprognose shadow vars persistence point covid variables multiple errors estimates var agents risiko risk expectations dynamics gap updating volatility term predictions volatilität models economic joint forecasters standard trend equilibrium informed forecasting modeling macroeconomic financial elb based density forecast where outlier
Composed forecasting model time varying economic forecast stochastic volatility shadow rate forecast errors stochastischer prozess stochastic process monte carlo simulation bayes statistik bayesian inference varying uncertainty multiple horizon survey professional professional forecasters gap inflation var modell var model forecast updating outlier augmented uc model time series analysis stochastische volatilität rate vars modeling time uncertainty multiple horizon forecast point forecasts inflation predictions uncertainty measures inflation professional professional forecast forecast dynamics dynamics evaluation evaluation stickiness stickiness persistence persistence volatility forecasters spf augmented sv rational expectations yield curve state space model inflation rate spf forecasts state space addressing covid covid outliers outliers bvars bvars stochastic macroeconomic variables standard vars volatility sv sv model informed agents trend inflation inflation persistence constructing fan fan charts charts ragged ragged edge edge spf spf point imperfect information errors modeling survey forecasts standard var term rates financial conditions joint dynamics term structure of expectations bayesian vars unvollkommene information based sampling point density forecasts survey term structures trend gap average spf spf inflation chip federal given point
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The information on the author is retrieved from: Entity Facts (by DNB = German National Library data service), DBPedia and Wikidata
Elmar Mertens Biblio: Dissertation 2007 an der Universität Lausanne
Profession Economist
Affiliations Deutsche Bundesbank
Publishing years Series Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series (8) Discussion paper (5) FRB of Cleveland Working Paper (5) Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper (3) BIS Working Paper (2) Working papers / Bank for International Settlements (2) Discussion papers / CEPR (2) CAMA Working Paper (2) CAMA working paper series (2) Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España (1) FRB St. Louis Working Paper (1) FRB Richmond Working Paper (1) Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (1) Working paper (1) 
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