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415 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. Causes of climate models uncertainty and implications for economic policy
abstractIn this paper it is shown that climate models are characterized by uncertainty and its causes are pointed out. It is well known that a higher greenhouse gas concentration raises the radiative forcing of the earth and the physics behind it is well understood. However, as regards the feedback effects of higher temperatures, parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and the chaotic nature of the climate system give rise to a considerable degree of ignorance regarding the climate system. Given this uncertainty costly CO2 abatement measures are difficult to justify with the currently available technology. But, due to technical progress more efficient technologies are expected to reduce abatement costs in the future such that a net zero emission policy could be justified to avoid possible, but uncertain, climate damages. In any case, fixing a deadline by which the net zero goal must be met is not welfare maximizing and more flexibility is needed to avoid prohibitive costs.
Greiner, Alfred;2025
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link 2. Uncertainty of climate models and policy implications : a European perspective
Greiner, Alfred;2024
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
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Link 3. Uncertainty of climate models and policy implications : a European perspective
abstractIn this paper we show that both climate models and economic models studying the effects of climate change are characterized by high uncertainty. Hence, far reaching policy implications such as the net zero goal lack a definite scientific foundation. Neverthelss, it cannot be excluded that the continued global warming will go along with high damages in the future. Therefore, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions could be justified due to the precautionary motif. However, there are strong signals from non-European economic regions that they definitely put a higher weight on economic growth rather than on greenhouse gas mitigation. Since reductions in the European Union cause tremendous costs without influencing the climate on earth, the net zero goal of the New Green Deal of the European Union is to be seen sceptical.
Greiner, Alfred;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link 4. Non-smooth climate change and emergent novel equilibria in an environmental-economic system
abstractIn this paper we study a basic model of economic growth where we integrate a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the Earth. The albedo of the Earth is the piecewise smooth function of the average surface temperature, thus, taking into account possible feedback effects of a higher temperature. The analysis of the model shows that the model with a jump in the albedo has either a unique regular steady-state or two regular steady-states. When the albedo is described by a piece-wise linear function there exists a non-degenerate pseudo-equilibrium where the temperature stabilizes at the upper switching point of albedo increase with a strictly positive level of consumption.
Bondarev, Anton; Greiner, Alfred;2023
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link 5. Assessing nonlinearities and heterogeneity in debt sustainability analysis : a panel spline approach
Owusu, Benjamin; Bökemeier, Bettina; Greiner, Alfred;2023
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
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Link 6. Can the vaccinations end the Covid-19 pandemic?
abstractIn this paper we empirically analyze the effect of the vaccinations against the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the Covid-19 pandemic for European countries from February 2021 to February 2022 with weekly data. We perform panel fixed effects estimations, GMM estimations and nonlinear penalized spline estimations. We find a statistically significant and positive relation between the share of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the share of vaccinated people. That holds for both fully vaccinated persons and for people having received a booster injection as well. As regards hospitalizations we find weak empirical evidence for a negative relation between vaccinations and the rate of hospitalizations.
Greiner, Alfred; Owusu, Benjamin Darkwa;2022
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link Link Link 7. Monetary-fiscal policy relations in the euro area : the impact on the primary balance
abstractWith this paper, our objective is to empirically study public debt sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function where the primary balance relative to GDP is assumed to be a function of the public debt to GDP ratio of the previous year and of other macroeconomic variables. In particular, we take into account the effects of monetary policy on the primary budget of the government by including the real long term interest rate and the in ation rate, measured as the change in the GDP price de ator. We resort to the fixed effects and to the random effects models for a panel of 12 euro area economies from 1996 to 2020. We find statistical evidence for sustainable debt policies and detect that both monetary policy variables are positively correlated with the primary balance to GDP ratio. This holds both for the fixed and for the random effects estimation, when those variables are included simultaneously.
Dascher-Preising, Fabienne; Greiner, Alfred;2022
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link Link Link 8. Regime-based debt sustainability analysis : evidence from euro area economies
abstractThis paper empirically studies non-linearities in debt sustainability analysis by resorting to the modern estimation technique of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR). We assess euro area debt sustainability by analysing the reaction of the primary balance to changes in public debt, relative to GDP respectively, in annual frequency from 2000-2019 in a panel framework. The PSTR allows to estimate the existence of a threshold in the behaviour of the reaction function, refrains from the country-wise perspective (pooling) and applies a regime-switching model to detect non-linearities. Data is segregated into different regimes endogenously via a logistics regression. Our results show that there are two different regimes in the euro area: a high and a low debt regime. The estimated reaction coefficient for the low debt regime is statistically insignificant, whereas it is positive and statistically significant for the high debt regime. Further, for a sub-sample of highly indebted economies we find a statistically significant negative (positive) reaction coefficient for the low (high) debt regime.
Bökemeier, Bettina; Owusu, Benjamin; Greiner, Alfred;2022
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link Link Link 9. Climate change and economic growth : some critical reflections
abstractEmpirical studies analyzing the effect of climate change on output growth sometimes neglect economic variables. This yields a biased picture of the growth process and does not represent a good approximation of the true data generating process. Thus, the question arises how valid the results are so that analyses investigating the robustness of the outcome with respect to integrating economic variables should be carried out.
Greiner, Alfred;2022
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link Link Link Link 10. Uncertainty of climate models and policy implications: A European perspective
Greiner, Alfred;2024
Type: Working Paper;
Availability:
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