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283 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. Demographic obstacles to European growth
Cooley, Thomas F.; Henriksen, Espen; Nusbaum, Charlie;2024
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability:
Link 2. Rating agencies
Cole, Harold L.; Cooley, Thomas F.;2023
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link 3. Information Acquisition and Rating Agencies
abstractFor decades credit rating agencies were viewed as trusted arbiters of creditworthiness and their ratings as important tools for managing risk. The common narrative is that the value of ratings was compromised by the evolution of the industry to a form where issuers pay for ratings. In this paper we consider both an investor-pays and an issuer-pays set-ups and show that if the investor-pays version can overcome the free-rider problem it is efficient, and otherwise leads to under-provision of information; while if the issuer-pays can force disclosure, it is efficient, but otherwise it leads to less revealing information because of the systematic distortion in revealed information along with over-investment in information. We show that in both these arrangements credit ratings have value in equilibrium and how reputation insures that, in equilibrium, ratings will reflect sound assessments of credit worthiness. We argue that regulatory reliance on ratings and the increasing importance of risk-weighted capital in prudential regulation have more likely contributed to distorted ratings than the matter of who pays for them
Cole, Harold L.; Cooley, Thomas F.;2023
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link Link
4. Information acquisition and rating agencies
Cole, Harold L.; Cooley, Thomas F.;2023
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
5. Demographic Obstacles to European Growth
abstractSince the early 1990's the growth rates of the four largest European economies--France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom--have slowed. This persistent slowdown suggests a low-frequency structural change is at work. A combination of longer individual life expectancies and declining fertility have led to gradually ageing populations. Demographic change affects economic growth directly through households savings and labor supply decisions and also growth indirectly through the pension systems and the need to fund them. Tax increases to balance budgets will impose additional distortions to individual factor-supply choices. We quantify the growth effects from aging and from the financing of public pensions, and we estimate the welfare gains from pension reforms
Cooley, Thomas F.; Henriksen, Espen; Nusbaum, Charlie;2019
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 4 (based on OpenCitations)
6. Demographic obstacles to European growth
Cooley, Thomas F.; Henriksen, Espen; Nusbaum, Charlie;2019
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link
7. Demographic Obstacles to European Growth
abstractSince the early 1990's the growth rates of the four largest European economies — France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom — have slowed. This persistent slowdown suggests a low-frequency structural change is at work. A combination of longer individual life expectancy and declining fertility have led to gradually ageing populations. Demographic change affects economic growth directly through aggregate savings and labor supply decisions and also indirectly through the pension systems and the need to fund them. Taxes to fund pension systems may impose additional distortions to individual factor-supply choices. We quantify the growth effects from ageing and from the financing of public pensions, and we study the welfare consequences of some reforms that have been suggested to increase late-life labor supply, and through that, long-run growth
Cooley, Thomas F.; Henriksen, Espen; Nusbaum, Charlie;2022
Availability: Link Link
8. Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914
abstractThe agrarian unrest in the United States at the end of the nineteenth century is examined. This unrest is often viewed as stemming from the inability of farmers to adapt to changing conditions in world agriculture. This hypothesis is tested in the context of a distributed lag supply function. Varying parameter estimation methods are used to trace the history of the parameters in the supply function and to decompose observed prices into permanent and transitory components over time. The patterns of variation are tested for conformity with a model of rational price-expectation formation. The conclusion is that farmers behaved as economic theory would predict, but that neither theory nor practice gave them relief from the troubles which plagued them
Cooley, Thomas F.; Decanio, Stephen J.;2021
Availability: Link
9. Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macroeconometric Model
abstractFour estimators of econometric models are compared for predictive accuracy. Two estimators assume that the parameters of the equations are subject to variation over time. The first of these, the adaptive regression technique (ADR), assumes that the intercept varies overtime, while the other, a varying-parameter regression technique (VPR), assumes that all parameters may be subject to variation. The other two estimators are ordinary least squares (OLS) and a robust estimator that gives less weight to large residuals. The vehicle for these experiments is the econometric model developed by Ray Fair. The main conclusion is that varying parameter techniques appear promising for the estimation of econometric models. They are clearly superior in the present context for short term forecasts. Of the two varying parameter techniques considered, ADR is superior over longer prediction intervals
Cooley, Thomas F.;2021
Availability: Link
10. The Farm, the City, and the Emergence of Social Security
abstractIn this paper we study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries make it clear that urbanization and industrialization are strongly associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe a model economy in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together. We study an economy with two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial). The decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Furthermore, the level of social security is determined by majority voting. We show that a calibrated version of this economy is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States. Initially a majority of voters live on the farm and do not want to implement social security. Once a majority of the voters move to the city, the median voter prefers a positive social security tax. In the model social security emerges and is sustained over time as a political and economic equilibrium. Modeling the political economy of social security within a model of structural change leads to a rich economic environment in which the median voter is identified by both age and location
Caucutt, Elizabeth M.; Cooley, Thomas F.; Guner, Nezih;2021
Availability: Link Link
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