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shift sharenon cointegrationcointegration econometriceconometric evaluationevaluation modelsmodels regionalregional shiftregional basecointegration regionaloutput industrytime series analysisphiladelphia pa region share determinationdetermination regionalbase regionalbase multipliersmultipliers nonshare postpost samplesample forecastingforecasting comparisonscomparisons modelmodel selectionselection proceduresprocedures paperpaper teststests cointegrationregional outputindustry nationalnational outputindustry equilibriumequilibrium economiceconomic presentedpresented argueargue plausibilityplausibility cointegrationregional economiceconomic forecastingforecasting usingusing shiftshare frameworkframework actsacts cointegrationcointegration existexist datadata analysisanalysis broadbroad industrialindustrial sectorssectors statesstates findsfinds littlelittle evidenceevidence cointegrationcointegration forecastingforecasting modelsmodels imposingimposing cointegrationcointegration constructed
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