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766 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. A new interpretation of U.S. productivity growth dynamics, 1950-2023
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link 2. How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators?
abstractThis paper studies the effect of economic indicators on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Presidential approval ratings, and Presidential election outcomes since 1956. How closely do the indicators predict sentiment, how well does sentiment predict approval, and what role does approval have in explaining election outcomes measured by electoral votes? How much of the variance of approval ratings depends on non-economic factors like the "honeymoon effect"? Is there a role for economic indicators in explaining election outcomes once the contribution of approval ratings is taken into account? Regression equations provide answers to these questions and allow new interpretations of political history. Equation residuals and the contributions of specific variables are graphically displayed, providing insights into time intervals when sentiment was above or below the prediction of economic indicators, when approval differed from its usual relation with sentiment and the indicators, and when and why the electoral vote totals in each election since 1956 exceeded or fell short of the predictions of the econometric equations
Gordon, Robert J.;2024
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link Link
3. Transatlantic technologies : the role of ICT in the evolution of U.S. and European productivity growth
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2020
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link
4. Transatlantic Technologies : The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth
abstractWe examine the role of the ICT revolution in driving productivity growth behavior for the United States and an aggregate of ten Western European nations (the EU-10) from 1977 to 2015. We find that the standard growth accounting approach is deficient when it separates sources of growth between ICT capital deepening and TFP growth, because much of the effect of the ICT revolution was channeled through spillovers to TFP growth rather than being limited to the capital deepening pathway. Using industry-level data from EU KLEMS, we find that most of the 1995-2005 U.S. productivity growth revival was driven by ICT-intensive industries producing market services and computer hardware. In contrast the EU-10 experienced a 1995-2005 growth slowdown due to a paucity of ICT investment, a failure to capture the efficiency benefits of ICT, and performance shortfalls in specific industries including ICT production, finance-insurance, retail-wholesale, and agriculture. After 2005 both the U.S. and the EU-10 suffered a growth slowdown, indicating that the benefits of the ICT revolution were temporary rather than providing a new permanent era of faster productivity growth. This joint transatlantic post-2005 slowdown is consistent with the broader view that ongoing innovation has been less potent in boosting productivity growth compared to earlier decades of the postwar era
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2020
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 4 (based on OpenCitations)
5. The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown
abstractBy merging KLEMS data sets and aggregating over the ten largest Western European nations (EU-10), we are able to compare and contrast productivity growth up through 2015 starting from 1950 in the U.S. and from 1972 in the EU-10. Data are provided at the aggregate level, as well as for 16 industry groups within the total economy and 11 manufacturing sub-industries. The analysis focuses on outcomes over four time intervals: 1950-72, 1972-95, 1995-2005, and 2005-15. We interpret the EU-10 performance as catching up to the U.S. in stages, with its rapid growth of 1950-72 representing a delayed adoption of the inventions that propelled U.S. productivity growth in the first half of the 20th century, and the next EU-10 stage for 1972-95 as imitating the U.S. outcome for 1950-72. We show that both the pace of aggregate productivity growth during 1972-95 for the EU-10 as well as its industrial composition matched very closely the growth record of the U.S. in the previous 1950-72 time interval
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2019
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 6 (based on OpenCitations)
6. The industry anatomy of the transatlantic productivity growth slowdown
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2019
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link
7. A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022
abstractThe dismal decade of 2010-19 recorded the slowest productivity growth of any decade in U.S. history, only 1.1 percent per year in the business sector. Yet the pandemic appears to have created a resurgence in productivity growth with a 4.1 percent rate achieved in the four quarters of 2020. This paper provides a unified framework that explains productivity growth in both the pre-pandemic and pandemic-era U.S. economy. The key insight is that in their panicked reaction to the collapse of output in the 2008-09 recession, business firms overreacted with “excess layoffs,” adjusting hours to the output decline with a far higher elasticity than normal. Our regression analysis, which allows post-recession rehiring that gradually unwinds the excess layoffs, explains why productivity growth was countercyclical in 2009 and why it was so slow in 2010-16 as rehiring boosted hours growth. Post-sample simulations explain why productivity growth was so high in 2020 and why it fell to only 0.6 percent in the five quarters of 2021-22. The paper includes implications for the future long-term evolution of productivity growth in the business sector and total economy. A new data file on quarterly productivity levels and changes for 17 industries provides new perspectives for 2006-22 and particularly for the nine pandemic quarters of 2020-22. Positive pandemic-era productivity growth can be entirely explained by a surge in the performance of work-from-home service industries, while goods industries soared and then slumped, while contact services recorded strongly negative productivity growth throughout 2020-22
Gordon, Robert J.; Sayed, Hassan;2022
Availability: Link
8. Using Monetary Control to Dampen the Business Cycle : A New Set of First Principles
abstractThis paper reviews the main characteristics of cyclical behavior in the postwar U. S. economy and reviews the arguments for and against an activist stabilization policy to dampen business cycles. Four major behavioral characteristics are identified from summary data on U. S.postwar business cycles. These involve (1) the volatility of velocity growth in comparison with that of money growth, (2) the inertia of inflation, (3) the natural rate of unemploymentas a dividing line between Conditions of accelerating and decelerating inflation, and (4)the role of supply shocks.The volatility of nominal CNP growth suggests that a target for nominal GNP growth might be considered as a possible alternative to control of monetary aggregates. Major qualifications to the case for this approach include lags and forecasting errors, uncertainty about policy multipliers, uncertainty about the natural rate of unemployment,and recent critiques based on the rational expectations view of macro-economic behavior.The paper treats supply shocks and institutional rigidities as constraints faced by policymakers.These influence the optimal degree of monetary accommodation of supply shocks and the choice among alternative paths for economic recovery. The analysis of constraints faced by the central bank contrasts with the usual analysis of a central bank operating in isolation
Gordon, Robert J.;2022
Availability: Link
9. The Estimation of Prewar Gnp : Methodology and New Evidence
abstractThe paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-08 and 1869-28. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick aeries but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than in the postwar period
Balke, Nathan S.; Gordon, Robert J.;2022
Availability: Link
10. Government Intervention in the Inflation Process : The Econometrics of "Self-Inflicted Wounds"
abstractThis paper presents a single reduced-form inflation equation that can explain both the variance and acceleration of inflation during the 1970s.Inflation is explained by four sets of factors. Aggregate demand enters through the lagged output ratio and the growth rate of nominal GNP. The adjustment of inflation to changes in aggregate demand is limited by the role of inertia in the inflation process, expressed as the dependence of the rate of change of prices on its own past values. Two types of supply-side elements enter. Government intervention directly altered the price level during the Nixon control era, and in addition the government has aggravated the inflation problem by what have been called "self-inflicted wounds," including increases in the effective social security tax rate and effective minimum wage. Also there have been external supply shocks that are outside of the immediate control of the government, including changes in the relative prices of food and energy, changes in the growth rate of productivity, and changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Considerable attention is given to alternative methods of estimating the impact of direct episodes of government intervention In the price-setting process, particularly during the Nixon controls. We find that such episodes have been futile. Because of their futility, these intervention episodes can be regarded as "self-inflicted wounds," like the payroll tax and minimum wage changes that normally are described by this term
Frye, Jon; Gordon, Robert J.;2022
Availability: Link