126 records from EconBiz based on author Name

1. Is Government Debt Good or Bad for Labor Productivity? A Dynamic Panel Analysis Over 1972-2019

abstract

In this paper we provide new insights on the nexus between public debt and economic growth, focusing on the growth of debt rather than its level. By exploiting updated macroeconomic time series for 75 countries (37 OECD and 38 non-OECD) over the period 1972-2019 and using the system-GMM technique, we estimate the impact of the growth of public debt per worker on labor productivity growth. We find evidence of a significant adverse effect of the growth of public debt per worker on labor productivity growth, as proxied by the growth of output per worker. Similar results arise when we consider the growth of public debt per capita and the growth of real GDP per hours worked

Carvelli, Gianni; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link Link

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2. Can Fiscal Policy Help Macroeconomic Stabilisation? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints

abstract

This paper derives a New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model with liquidity-constrained consumers and sticky prices. The model allows a role for both government spending and taxation in the DGE model. The model is then estimated using US data. We demonstrate that there seems to be a significant role for rule-of-thumb consumer behaviour. Our model is then used to analyse the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. We examine the extent to which fiscal policy (automatic stabilisers) assist or hinder monetary policy when the latter takes a standard forward-looking inflation targeting form. We also examine the extent to which inertia in fiscal policy and the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers affects output and inflation variability in the presence of such a monetary policy rule

Muscatelli, V. Anton; Tirelli, Patrizio; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 2 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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3. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : Empirical Evidence and Optimal Policy Using a Structural New Keynesian Model

abstract

This paper examines the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies using an estimated New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model for the US. In contrast to earlier work using VAR models, we show that the strategic complementarity or substitutability of fiscal and monetary policy depends crucially on the types of shocks hitting the economy, and on the assumptions made about the underlying structural model. We also demonstrate that countercyclical fiscal policy can be welfare-reducing if fiscal and monetary policy rules are inertial and not co-ordinated

Muscatelli, V. Anton; Tirelli, Patrizio; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 48 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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4. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions Over the Cycle : Some Empirical Evidence

abstract

This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are increasingly used as strategic complements, the responsiveness of fiscal policy to the business cycle has decreased since the 1980s. We also demonstrate that shifts in the strategic interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy can be captured using Bayesian VAR models

Muscatelli, V. Anton; Tirelli, Patrizio; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 9 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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5. The Information Content of M3 for Future Inflation

abstract

This paper analyzes the possibility to generate indeterminacy and equilibria with short-run non-neutrality of money in a model with flexible prices, constant returns to scale in production and constant money growth rules. The model recovers previous results in the literature as particular cases. It is shown that real effects of monetary shocks, as observed in the data, can arise in four regions of the parameter space. Two regions are characterized by unreasonable assumptions, which lead to inferiority of consumption or leisure. Two regions are characterized by reasonable assumptions and by normality of the goods. However, real effects of monetary shocks require implausible parameter values

Trecroci, Carmine; Vega Croissier, Juan Luis;
2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 25 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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6. Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries

abstract

We estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions for the G3 economies and for a group of countries which recently adopted inflation targets. Some significant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy are detected in the G3 countries, especially in the USA and Japan. In contrast with popular wisdom, it is only since the 1990s that policies in these countries begin to look consistent with an inflation-targeting regime. In addition, the introduction of inflation targeting and central bank reforms in countries like Sweden, Canada and New Zealand has not led to major changes in the way in which central banks react to the objectives of economic policy. In all cases changes in policy behaviour pre-date the introduction of inflation targets and central bank reforms. The paper challenges the one-size-fits-all attitude towards modern central bank policymaking which permeates a great deal of the current literature

Muscatelli, V. Anton; Tirelli, Patrizio; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 2 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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7. Is government debt good or bad for labor productivity? A dynamic panel analysis over 1972-2019

Carvelli, Gianni; Trecroci, Carmine;
2021
Availability: Link

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8. Measuring the Effects of U.S. Uncertainty and Monetary Conditions on EMEs’ Macroeconomic Dynamics

abstract

We explore empirically the transmission of U.S. financial and macroeconomic uncertainty to emerging market economies (EMEs). We start by assuming that there are crucial differences between volatility and uncertainty, and between the latter and its shocks. With the help of Bayesian vector auto-regressions, we first identify two measures of U.S. uncertainty shocks, which appear to explain the dynamics of output developments better than conventional volatility measures. Next, we find evidence that adverse shocks to U.S. aggregate uncertainty are associated with marked contractions in some EMEs' business cycles. However, we detect significant cross-country heterogeneity in the responses of EMEs' business cycles to U.S uncertainty shocks. We also find generalized declines in stock market values, which supports the so-called Global Financial Cycle hypothesis

Rivolta, Giulia; Trecroci, Carmine;
2020
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 3 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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9. Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics

Rivolta, Giulia; Trecroci, Carmine;
2020
Availability: Link

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10. International equity markets interdependence : bigger shocks or contagion in the 21st century?

Bua, Giovanna; Trecroci, Carmine;
2019
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link

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