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expectation formationforeign exchangeforeign exchange marketrisk premiumsurvey datarationale erwartungrational expectationsexchange marketinterest ratesstructural changeforecasting modelarch modellarch modelannouncement effectexchange rateshare priceevidence individualstructural breakbusiness cycle synchronizationdynamic heterogeneityex anteante riskoil marketterm structurestructure ratesrates modellingmodelling riskpremium usingusing horizonshorizons frameworkcrises structuralmarkets learnlearn rationallyrationally expectexpect ratesevidence surveytime varyingvarying heterogeneitydata jumpsjumps equilibriumequilibrium pricesprices asymmetricasymmetric newsnews foreignexchange marketspersistence announcementannouncement effectseffects intradayvolatility stockstock returnsreturns evidenceindividual dataapproach usingusing surveyoil pricestructural breaksyield curveinterest rate riskeu staateneu countrieseuro areawirtschaftliche konvergenzeconomic convergenceinterest rateforex marketjump detection testhigh frequency datamicrostructure noiseasymmetric garchmarket microstructurestock indexscientific modellingus dollarmodeling exrisk premiapremia oilmarket termframework europeangrowth synchronizationsynchronization crisesstructural changeschanges termframework eurozoneeurozone convergenceconvergence crises
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