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431 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. Can the Philippines attain 6.5-8 percent growth during 2023-28? : an assessment based on the estimation of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate
abstractWe expand the standard balance-of-payments-constrained (BOPC) growth rate model in three directions. First, we take into account the separate contributions of exports in goods, exports in services, overseas remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Second, we use state-space estimation techniques to obtain time-varying parameters of the relevant coefficients. Third, we test for the endogeneity of output in the import equation. We apply this framework to assess the feasibility of the target set by the new Philippine administration of President Marcos (elected in 2022) to attain an annual GDP growth rate of 6.5-8 percent during 2024-28. We obtain an estimate of the growth rate consistent with equilibrium in the basic balance of the Philippines of about 6.5 percent in 2021 (and declining during the years prior to it). This BOPC growth rate is below the 6.5-8 percent target. We also find that exchange-rate depreciations will not lead to an improvement in the BOPC growth rate. The Philippines must lift the constraints that impede a higher growth of exports. In particular, it must shift its export structure toward more sophisticated products with a higher income elasticity of demand.
Felipe, Jesus; Albis, Manuel Leonard;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
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Link Link 2. The aggregate production function and Solow's "three denials"
abstractThis paper offers a retrospective view of the key pillar of Solow's neoclassical growth model, namely the aggregate production function. We review how this tool came to life and how it has survived until today, despite three criticisms that undermined its raison d'être. They are the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies, the Aggregation Problem, and the Accounting Identity. These criticisms were forgotten by the profession, not because they were wrong but because of the key role played by Robert Solow in the field. Today, these criticisms are not even mentioned when students are introduced to (neoclassical) growth theory, which is presented in most economics departments and macroeconomics textbooks as the only theory worth studying
Felipe, Jesus; McCombie, John S. L.;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link Link 3. The ANIMO econometric model database of De La Salle University : variables and technical notes
Aragones, Eva Marie; Felipe, Jesus; Pérez Garcia, Julian; Sauler, Mariel Monica;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
4. The estimation of production functions with monetary values
Felipe, Jesus; McCombie, John S. L.; Mehta, Aashish;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
5. Can the Philippines attain 6.5-8 percent growth during 2023-28? : an assessment based on the estimation of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate
Felipe, Jesus; Albis, Manuel Leonard;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
6. Do changes in the real exchange rate affect the trade balance? : evidence from European countries
Felipe, Jesus; Pérez-Montiel, José Antonio; Ozcelebi, Oguzhan;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
7. The aggregate production function and Solow's "Three Denials"
Felipe, Jesus; McCombie, John S. L.;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link Link
8. The estimation of production functions with monetary values
abstractFor decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most often estimated using deflated monetary values for output (value added or gross output) and capital. This introduces two additional problems-an errors-invariables problem, and a tendency to recover the factor shares in value added instead of their elasticities. The latter problem derives from the fact that the series used are linked through the accounting identity that links value added to the sum of the wage bill and profits. Using simulated data from a cross-sectional Cobb-Douglas production function in physical terms from which we generate the corresponding series in monetary values, we show that the coefficients of labor and capital derived from the monetary series will be (a) biased relative to the elasticities by simultaneity and by the error that results from proxying physical output and capital with their monetary values; and (b) biased relative to the factor shares in value added as a result of a peculiar form of omitted variables bias. We show what these biases are and conclude that estimates of production functions obtained using monetary values are likely to be closer to the factor shares than to the factor elasticities. An alternative simulation that does not assume the existence of a physical production function confirms that estimates from the value data series will converge to the factor shares when cross-sectional variation in the factor prices is small. This is, again, the result of the fact that the estimated relationship is an approximation to the distributional accounting identity.
Felipe, Jesus; McCombie, John S. L.; Mehta, Aashish;2024
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link Link 9. Is anything left of the debate about the sources of growth in East Asia thirty years later?
abstractThe year 2023 commemorates the 30th anniversary of the publication of the influential, yet controversial, study The East Asian Miracle report by the World Bank (1993). An important part of the report's analysis was concerned with the sources of growth in East Asia. This was based on the neoclassical decomposition of growth into productivity and factor accumulation. At about the same time, the publication of Alwyn Young's (1992, 1995) and J. I. Kim and Lawrence Lau's (1994) studies, and Paul Krugman's (1994) popularization of the "zero total factor productivity growth" thesis, led to a very important debate within the profession, on the sources of growth in East Asia. The emerging literature on China's growth during the 1990s also used the neoclassical growth model to decompose overall growth into total factor productivity growth and factor accumulation. This survey reviews what the profession has learned during the last 30 years about East Asia's growth, using growth-accounting exercises and estimations of production functions. It demystifies this literature by pointing out the significant methodological problems inherent in the neoclassical growth-accounting approach. We conclude that the analysis of growth within the framework of the neoclassical model should be seriously questioned. Instead, we propose that researchers look at other approaches, for example, the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate approach of Thirlwall (1979) or the product space of Hidalgo et al. (2007), together with the notion of complexity of Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009).
Felipe, Jesus; McCombie, John S. L.;2023
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link Link 10. Economic transformation and growth in the Philippines : an analysis of political settlements, rents, and deals
abstractThe main gateway for the Philippines to develop and become an upper-middle-income economy - and eventually, a high-income economy - is to expedite the shift of workers out of agriculture and to produce and export more complex products with a higher income elasticity of demand. The actual growth rate is constrained by the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate, about 6 percent-the maximum the country can attain without incurring balance-ofpayments problems. We use the Pritchett-Sen-Werker political-economy framework to analyze the roles of different types of firms and the deals environment from successive Philippine administrations until the current one. Due to their economic size and political power, only the nation's conglomerates will be able to lead the transformation of the economy. However, the country's large groups do not have incentives nor do they see the need to shift to the production and export of tradables. Without this transformation, the country will be able to register positive growth but will not become an internationally competitive economy, and will not be able to achieve, and especially maintain, the growth rate targeted by the current administration: 6.5-8 percent per annum during 2023-28.
Felipe, Jesus; Desher, Edgar; Miranda, Brendan;2023
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link Link