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137 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. MIMIC Models, Cointegration and Error Correction : An Application to the French Shadow Economy
abstractThe analysis of economic loss attributed to the shadow economy has attracted much attention in recent years by both academics and policy makers. Often, multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models are applied to time series data estimating the size and development of the shadow economy for a particular country. This type of model derives information about the relationship between cause and indicator variables and a latent variable, here the shadow economy, from covariance structures. As most macroeconomic variables do not satisfy stationarity, long run information is lost when employing first differences. Arguably, this shortcoming is rooted in the lack of an appropriate MIMIC model which considers cointegration among variables. This paper develops a MIMIC model which estimates the cointegration equilibrium relationship and the error correction short run dynamics, thereby retaining information for the long run. Using France as our example, we demonstrate that this approach allows researchers to obtain more accurate estimates about the size and development of the shadow economy
Bühn, Andreas; Schneider, Friedrich;2021
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 9 (based on OpenCitations)
2. Decentralization and the Shadow Economy : Oates Meets Allingham-Sandmo
abstractThis paper studies the impact of decentralization on the shadow economy. We argue that decentralization may decrease the size of the shadow economy mainly through two transmission channels: Decentralization enhancing public sector efficiency (efficiency effect), and decentralization reducing the distance between bureaucrats and economic agents, which increases the probability of detection of shadow economic activities (deterrence effect). Using various measures of fiscal, political and government employment decentralization in a cross-section of countries, we find the deterrence effect to be of more importance. The deterrence effect is stronger, the lower the degree of institutional quality. Remarkably, we find no robust evidence of the efficiency effect
Bühn, Andreas; Lessmann, Christian; Markwardt, Gunther;2021
Availability: Link Link
3. Mimic Models, Cointegration and Error Correction : An Application to the French Shadow Economy
abstractThe analysis of economic loss attributed to the shadow economy has attracted much attention in recent years by both academics and policy makers. Often, multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models are applied to time series data estimating the size and development of the shadow economy for a particular country. This type of model derives information about the relationship between cause and indicator variables and a latent variable, here the shadow economy, from covariance structures. As most macroeconomic variables do not satisfy stationarity, long run information is lost when employing first differences. Arguably, this shortcoming is rooted in the lack of an appropriate MIMIC model which considers cointegration among variables. This paper develops a MIMIC model which estimates the cointegration equilibrium relationship and the error correction short run dynamics, thereby retaining information for the long run. Using France as our example, we demonstrate that this approach allows researchers to obtain more accurate estimates about the size and development of the shadow economy
Bühn, Andreas; Schneider, Friedrich;2021
Availability: Link Link
4. Shadow economy: estimation methods, problems, results and open questions
abstractThis paper presents various methods used for estimating the size of the shadow economy. Each method is evaluated and its strengths and weaknesses are discussed, as well as results each method yields. The purpose of the paper is threefold: Firstly, to demonstrate that there is no single infallible method for estimating the size and development of the shadow economy and results can differ significantly between different approaches. The MIMIC approach, discussed in greater detail, is often used due to its flexibility. Secondly, the paper discusses the very definition of the shadow economy and factors contributing to its growth. Finally, latest estimations of the size of the shadow economies of 143 countries over the period 1996 to 2014 are presented.
Schneider, Friedrich; Bühn, Andreas;2018
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link Link
Citations: 81 (based on OpenCitations)
5. Size and development of tax evasion in 38 OECD coutries : what do we (not) know?
Bühn, Andreas; Schneider, Friedrich;2016
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link
6. Estimating the size of the shadow economy : methods, problems and open questions
abstractThis paper presents various methods for estimating the size of the shadow economy and analyzes their strengths and weaknesses. The purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it demonstrates that no ideal method exists to estimate the size and development of the shadow economy. Because of its flexibility, the MIMIC method used to get macro-estimates of the size of the shadow economy is discussed in greater detail. Secondly, the paper focuses on the definition and causal factors of the shadow economy and provides a comparison of the size of the shadow economy using different estimation methods.
Schneider, Friedrich; Bühn, Andreas;2016
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link Link
7. Exploring the dark side of tax policy : an analysis of the interactions between fiscal illusion and the shadow economy
abstractThis paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between fiscal illusion and the shadow economy for 104 countries over the period 1989-2009. We argue that both unobservable phenomena are closely linked to each other, as the creation of a fiscal illusion may be helpful if governments want to control shadow economic activities. Using a MIMIC model with two latent variables we confirm previous findings on the driving forces of the shadow economy and identify the main determinants and indicators of fiscal illusion. Most importantly, we find that fiscal illusion negatively affects the shadow economy and the shadow economy positively affects fiscal illusion. Concealing the real tax burden we find that an increase of taxation increases both shadow economic activities and fiscal illusion.
Bühn, Andreas; Dell' Anno, Roberto; Schneider, Friedrich;2015
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link Link
8. Shadow Economies All Over the World : New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007
abstractThis paper presents estimations of the shadow economies for 162 countries, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high-income countries over the period 1999 to 2006/2007. According to the estimations, the weighted average size of the shadow economy (as a percentage of "official" gross domestic product) in Sub-Saharan Africa is 38.4 percent; in Europe and Central Asia (mostly transition countries), it is 36.5 percent, and in high-income OECD countries, it is 13.5 percent. The authors find a clear negative trend in the size of the shadow economy: The unweighted average of the 162 countries in 1999 was 34.0 percent and in 2007 31.0 percent; hence a reduction of 3 percentage points!.The driving forces of the shadow economy are an increased burden of taxation (both direct and indirect), combined with labor market regulations and the quality of public goods and services, as well as the state of the "official" economy
Schneider, Friedrich; Bühn, Andreas; Montenegro, Claudio;2017
Availability: Link
9. Shadow Economies in highly developed OECD countries : what are the driving forces?
abstractThe main focus of this paper lies on the "driving forces" of the development and size of the shadow economy in 39 highly developed OECD countries. The most influential factors on the shadow economy are tax policies and state regulation, which, if rising, increase the shadow economy, though other, economic factors like unemployment are important, too. Specifically, it is shown that the main driving forces of the size and development of the shadow economy are unemployment, self-employment and the tax burden, which impact the shadow economies in these 30 OECD countries to a different degree. Between 1999 and 2010 unemployment and self-employment have on average the largest relative impact (14.6%), followed by tax morale (14.5%), GDP growth (14.3%), business freedom (14.2%) and indirect taxes (14.1%).
Schneider, Friedrich; Bühn, Andreas;2013
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability:
Link 10. Estimating the size of the shadow economy : methods, problems and open questions
abstractThis paper presents the various methods to estimate the size of the shadow economy, their strengths and weaknesses. The purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it demonstrates that no ideal method to estimate the size and development of the shadow economy exists. Because of its flexibility, the MIMIC method used to get macro-estimates of the size of the shadow economy is discussed in greater detail. Secondly, the paper focuses on the definition and causal factors of the shadow economy as well as on a comparison of the size of the shadow economy using different estimation methods.
Schneider, Friedrich; Bühn, Andreas;2013
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: