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95 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. Fiscal Structural Reforms : The Effect of Card Payments on Vat Revenue in the Euro Area
abstractThe use of traceable payment methods presents an additional reform option for improving tax compliance. As regards consumption, card payments are the main alternative to cash in the euro area. Although the use of micro-data has provided clear evidence in favour of increasing information trails, time series evidence on the role of card payments in increasing compliance have been scarce and confined to the recent experience of Greece. The effect of card payments on VAT revenue is investigated using quarterly panel data for the 19 euro area economies covering the period 2003q1-2016q4. Time-varying coefficient methods are employed in order to estimate the country-specific contribution of compliance to revenue growth as a function of card payments. In line with the micro-data literature, the analysis indicates that increasing the share of card payments in private consumption expenditure improves VAT tax compliance. The gains are found to increase: (i) the lower the initial level of card use; (ii) the higher the share of self-employment and (iii) the lower the level of revenue efficiency. The highest benefits are estimated for Greece and Italy
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios;2022
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2. The Effect of Card Payments on Vat Revenue in Greece
abstractThe effect of card payments on VAT revenue performance in Greece is investigated using quarterly observations on card transactions during 2002q1-2016q2. Timevarying- coefficient methods are employed, in order to study the role of increasing card payments after the imposition of cash restrictions in July 2015. We find that (i) a 1pp increase in the share of card payments in private consumption results in approximately 1% higher revenue through increased compliance; (ii) lowering the VAT rate can generate revenue gains; (iii) card transactions may facilitate tax buoyancy. It is argued that stronger incentives for using card payments in tax evading industries can help lock-in the recent strong revenue performance when cash restrictions are lifted
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios;2022
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3. When Does it Pay to Tax? Evidence from State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the Euro Area
abstractThe impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is investigated within a panel of euro area member states over the period 2004-2011. We mainly consider fiscal impulses identified by (a) changes in the structural primary balance, complemented by evidence from (b) the IMF narrative shocks developed by Devries et al (2011) and (c) a VARbased measure of unanticipated policy announcements. Aggregate fiscal multipliers are estimated in the region of 0.5, although we find considerable variation depending on the fiscal mix, the degree of openness and the state of the economy. During episodes of recession, tax hikes become significantly more costly in terms of output than expenditure cuts. This appears to be related to increases in the share of hand-tomouth consumers, proxied by the unemployment rate. Fiscal effects are generally more muted in open economies and during periods of positive growth. Countryspecific features in Greece lead to significantly higher estimates, possibly in excess of unity in 2011, reflecting predominantly sizeable revenue effects
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios;2022
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4. Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change
abstractThe aim of this paper is to study the main macroeconomic, financial and structural characteristics that affected current account developments in Greece over the period 1960-2007 and link these to the issue of external sustainability. Concerns over Greece’s external sustainability have emerged since 1999 when the current account deficit widened substantially and exhibited high persistence. The empirical model used, which theoretically rests on the intertemporal approach, treats the current account as the gap between domestic saving and investment. We examine the behaviour of the current account in the long run and the short run using co-integration analysis and a variety of econometric tests to account for the effect of significant structural changes in the period under review. We find that a stable equilibrium current account model can be derived if the ratio of private sector financing to GDP, as a proxy for financial liberalization, is included in the specification. Policy options to restore the country’s external sustainability are explored by performing a simulation exercise based on the estimated equilibrium model
Brissimis, Sophocles N.; Hondroyiannis, George B.; Papazoglu, Chrēstos; Tsaveas, Nicholas; Vasardani, Melina;2022
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Citations: 6 (based on OpenCitations)
5. Bretton-Woods Systems, Old and New, and the Rotation of Exchange-Rate Regimes
abstractA recent contribution to the literature argues that the present international monetary system in many ways operates like the Bretton-Woods system. Asia is the new periphery of the system and pursues an export-led development strategy based on undervalued exchange rates and accumulated foreign reserves. The United States remains the centre country, pursuing a monetary-policy strategy that overlooks the exchange rate. Under both regimes the United States does not take external factors into account in conducting monetary policy while the periphery does take external factors into account. We provide results of a test of this hypothesis. Then, we present a new method for decomposition of a seasonally adjusted series the business cycle and other components using a time-varyingcoefficient technique that allows us to test the relationship between the cycle and macroeconomic policies under both regimes
Tavlas, George S.; Hall, Stephen G.; Hondroyiannis, George B.; Swamy, Paravastu A. V. B.;2022
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6. A portfolio balance approach to Euro-area money demand in a time-varying environment
abstractAs part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged showing that, beginning in 2001, essentially all euro area M3 demand functions have exhibited instability. This paper considers euroarea money demand in the context of the portfolio-balance framework. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used until now to estimate euro area money-demand are not well-specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies - - a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction (VEC) approach and a time-varying coefficient (TVC) approach - - we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. The upshot of our findings is that M3 behaviour continues to provide useful information about medium-term developments on inflation
Hall, Stephen G.; Hondroyiannis, George B.; Swamy, Paravastu A. V. B.; Tavlas, George S.;2022
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Citations: 7 (based on OpenCitations)
7. Measuring the Correlation of Shocks between the EU15 and the New Member Countries
abstractThis paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Hall, Stephen G.;2022
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8. Inflation Persistence During Periods of Structural Change : An Assessment Using Greek Data
abstractThe paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes in policy regimes. Three empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling, second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, and vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that inflation persistence was high during the inflationary period and the first six years of the disinflationary period, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Lazaretu, Sophia M.;2022
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9. The Effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes on Euro Area Sovereign Bond Yields During the Covid-19 Pandemic
abstractWe investigate the effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes (APP) on the monthly yields of 10-year sovereign bonds for 11 euro area sovereigns during January-December 2020. The analysis is based on time-varying coefficient methods applied to monthly panel data covering the period 2004m09 to 2020m12. During 2020 APP contributed to an average decline in yields estimated in the range of 58-76 bps. In December 2020 the effect per EUR trillion ranged between 34 bps in Germany and 159 bps in Greece. Stronger effects generally display diminishing returns. Our findings suggest that a sharp decline in the size of the APP in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis could lead to very sharp increases in bond yields, particularly in peripheral countries. The analysis additionally reveals a differential response to global risks between core and peripheral countries, with the former enjoying safe-haven benefits. Markets’ perceptions of risk are found to be significantly affected by credit ratings, which is in line with recent evidence based on constant parameter methods
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios;2022
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10. Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Greece
abstractThis paper assesses empirically the relationship between the development of the banking system and the stock market and economic performance for the case of Greece over the period 1986-1999. Greece is a medium sized EU country where the financial liberalization process started back in the early eighties. The empirical results, using VAR models, suggest that there exists a bi-directional causality between finance and growth in the long run. The findings, using error-correction models, show that both bank and stock market financing can promote economic growth, in the long run, although their effect is small. Furthermore, the contribution of stock market finance to economic growth appears to be substantially smaller compared to bank finance
Hondroyiannis, George B.; Lolos, Sarantis E. G.; Papapetrou, Evangelia;2022
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Citations: 8 (based on OpenCitations)
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