162 records from EconBiz based on author Name

1. On the determinants of sanctions effectiveness : an empirical analysis by using duration models

abstract

Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent decades. This article intends to approach this matter in an innovative way by analyzing the relative importance of sanctions' types and objectives, besides target countries' characteristics, on sanctions outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, we use more comprehensive data and a competing risk discrete-time hazard model to analyze the differences between sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. Our results show that the determinants for the two outcomes differ and that there are differences in the efficacy of sanctions according to their type and objective. We conclude that while higher levels of political volatility, democracy, and equality in target countries increase the probability of compliance, higher levels of democracy and globalization increase the probability of sender capitulation. Smart sanctions seem to be more effective at targeting compliance, as the likelihood of compliance is higher for financial and military sanctions than for trade. The likelihood of compliance also increases if the objective is to promote democracy and decreases if the objectives are policy, regime change, or terrorism. Instead, the probability of sender capitulation is higher for travel and trade sanctions and if the objective is to promote human rights.

Caetano, José Manuel; Galego, Maria Aurora; Caleiro, António;
2023
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link

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2. Economic policy uncertainty and stock return momentum

abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), an index capturing newspaper coverage of policy-related issues, and momentum profits. Momentum remains an unexplained anomaly. Our findings reveal a statistically negative association between EPU and hedge momentum portfolios. The short side portfolio dominates this effect as compared to the long side. EPU is statistically significant after controlling for macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, the paper conducts a battery of time series analysis, which highlights that EPU has a causal relationship with the hedge portfolio in the short run. On the other hand, the hedge portfolio has a long-term relationship with EPU, not the other way around.

Goel, Garima; Dash, Saumya Ranjan; Mata, Mário Nuno; Caleiro, António; Rita, João Xavier; Filipe, José António;
2021
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link Link

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3. Learning to classify the consumer confidence indicator (in Portugal)

abstract

The literature paid some attention, some time ago, to the relationship that, supposedly, should exist between the level of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate. This relationship is interesting, both from a scientific point of view, given the inherently subjective character of that level of confidence, but also from the point of view of economic policy, given the importance of the unemployment rate. In this article, that relationship is revisited, using learning models, namely regression and classification trees. Using, for example, the case of Portugal, the unemployment rate presents itself as an adequate classifier of the consumer confidence level. The use of classification trees shows that the separation between low and high values of the consumer confidence indicator is made from an adequate threshold value of the unemployment rate. The use of regression trees shows that the levels of consumer confidence are inversely related to the levels of the unemployment rate. In terms of policy lessons, this confirms that, in the face of economic crises, such as the one we are experiencing, in which confidence levels tend to fall and the unemployment rate increases, the relationship between these two variables cannot be ignored.

Caleiro, António;
2021
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link Link
Citations: 3 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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4. How can fear impact economic decisions in pandemic contexts at the light of decision-making systems? : An approach to the COVID-19 case

Chavaglia Neto, José; Caleiro, António; Filipe, José António; Coelho, Manuel Francisco Pacheco; Askari, Gholamreza;
2022
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link

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5. New challenges for the eurozone governance : joint solutions for common threats?

abstract

This book adopts a comprehensive approach, combining the views of economists and political scientists, to assess the threats of maintaining the non-collaborative stance that prevailed in the response to past crises, and to explore new solutions to the present emergency. The coronavirus pandemic represents a serious test for the continued existence of the European Monetary Union. It has worsened pre-existing divisions among its members and highlighted the urgent need to address institutional and governance problems that were already apparent in the aftermath of the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, but have now gained in relevance following the more widespread impact of the disease across the European Union. This book discusses concrete strategies to overcome the current challenges, focusing on the need to build an effective economic and monetary union. It also reflects on ways of pursuing conformity with discipline and coordination rules while also adopting a more collaborative stance that has so far been absent in the Eurozone and has consistently undermined the political and social dimensions of the common currency project.

Caetano, José Manuel; Vieira, Isabel; Caleiro, António;
2021
Type: Aufsatzsammlung; Beiträge ; Einzelbeiträge; Sammelwerk ;
Availability: Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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6. New Challenges for the Eurozone Governance : Joint Solutions for Common Threats?

abstract

1. The Future of the Euro Zone: A Reflection Paper on the North/South Divide -- 2. European Monetary Union and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Tightrope Act with the Risk of Falling -- 3. Europe at the Crossroads of the COVID-19 Crisis: Integrated Macroeconomic Policy Solutions for an Asymmetric Area -- 4. From Deadlocks to Breakthroughs: How We Can Complete the Banking Union and Why it Matters to All of Us -- 5. A Rule-Based Monetary Strategy for the European Central Bank: A Call for Monetary Stability -- 6. Searching for a New Balance for the Eurozone Governance in the Aftermath of the Coronavirus Crisis -- 7. Surfing the Epidemic at the Zero Lower Bound: A Eurozone Fiscal Era? -- 8. Reforming Under Pressure: The Evolution of Eurozone’s Fiscal Governance During a Decade of Crises -- 9. Essential and Non-Essential Goods: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling of the Infectious Disease Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak -- 10. Social Challenges for the Eurozone -- 11. Protecting Jobs and Incomes in Europe: Towards an EU Capacity for Employment Stabilization in the Pandemic Period -- 12. Changes in Labour Market Institutions and Unemployment in European Countries: An Empirical Analysis on the Short- and Long-Run Effects of Flexibility Measures -- 13. Austerity, Human Rights Erosion and Political Radicalization: Implications for Eurozone Governance Reform -- 14. The Politics of Covid-19: The Discourse on the Nature of the Economic Crisis and the Legitimization of EU’s Response -- 15. Institutional Rebalancing in the Wake of the Covid-19 Pandemic -- 16. The Post-pandemic Euro: Macroeconomic Lessons Learned from Crises and Economic Orthodoxies.

Caetano, José Manuel; Vieira, Isabel; Caleiro, António;
2021
Availability: Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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7. Have the recent dynamics of economic globalization biased social justice in the European Union?

Caetano, José Manuel; Caleiro, António;
2020
Type: Aufsatz im Buch; Book section;
Availability: Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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8. The spatial convergence of knowledge in Portugal

abstract

Human resources are an essential element in territorial development. When the same are characterized by a high level of training are enhancers of a series of effects which are essential in the relationship between territorial and social cohesion. In this regard, the existence of higher education institutions across the territory allows a delocalised qualification of human resources but, by itself, does not warrant the implantation of these resources in the various regions. So, is this paper we carry out as the main objective to analyse the spatial convergence of knowledge through the study of the evolution of the percentage of the population with a higher education level in the periods elapsed between the last two censuses in Portugal, i.e. between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011. In the majority of the empirical studies, regional (or spatial) economic convergence spatial) is studied from the viewpoint of the growth of per capita GDP. However, since human capital is a key factor in economic growth it seems to be important to know the spatial distribution of the that kind of capital and whether the regions have converged in terms of stock of qualified human resources. In fact, it is expected that a relevant spatial convergence of knowledge will be reflected in a spatial convergence in terms of economic growth, or even of unemployment rates. Portugal is, as is well known, an uneven country from a regional point of view, this also being true from the point of view of the location of its most skilled human resources. This paper showed that, despite the qualifications, measured by the percentage of resident population with higher education level, having risen considerably (from 1991 until 2011), in Portugal, the process of regional convergence (of knowledge) was of (very) little significance. This result is also applicable when gender differences are taken into account. In fact, despite the male population indicates to possess characteristics of greater mobility, the convergence process (in the period 2001-2011, i.e. when the data is available also by gender) did not alter significantly the relative position of the various NUTs about the proportion of their population possessing a higher education level. In terms of potential avenues to new analyses, it seems important to consider other variables that are also assignable to the potential effects of possessing a certain level of knowledge as, for example, productivity levels or unemployment rates (differentiated by level of education).

Guerreiro, Gertrudes Saudés; Caleiro, António;
2015
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Konferenzbeitrag; Conference paper;
Availability: Link

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9. Global development and climate change : a game theory approach

Caleiro, António; Sousa, Miguel Rocha de; Oliveira, Ingo Andrade de;
2019
Type: Aufsatz im Buch; Book section;
Availability: Link
Citations: 3 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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10. The value of urgency : evidence from real-time congestion pricing

Bento, Antonio; Roth, Kevin; Waxman, Andrew R.;
2024
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link

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