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35 records from EconBiz based on author Name
1. Fertile Futures : Scenario Analysis on the Interconnected Dynamics of Fertiliser and Agricultural Markets
abstractFertilisers are crucial components of food systems, with impacts beyond agricultural markets. This study utilises the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to examine the intricate interplay between fertiliser markets, policies, and their repercussions on agricultural markets, food security, and environmental sustainability over the medium term. Two distinct scenario analyses reveal significant insights. The first scenario shows that while short-term disruptions in fertiliser supply can be mitigated by existing stocks, prolonged deficits will increase global food prices by up to 6%, posing long-term threats to agriculture. In the second scenario, the removal of fertiliser subsidies in India leads to reduced domestic use, resulting in decreased agricultural production and exports coupled with increased imports. Although this will cause a modest 0.8% increase in global food prices, it will substantially cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the pivotal role of domestic policies in attaining global environmental sustainability goals.
Adenäuer, Marcel; Laget, Edith; Cluff, Merritt;2024
Availability: Link
2. Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade
abstractExtreme weather events can disrupt agricultural markets, but agricultural trade can help address subsequent food security concerns. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, this stochastic scenario analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between trade and food security in an environment where extreme weather events create uncertainty. The analysis suggests that trade integration makes countries less vulnerable to negative yield shocks by mitigating the risk of extreme food prices and by stabilising food availability. Although no model can capture the complex process and consequences of opening this sector to trade, it is clear that trade integration needs to be part of a wider coherent policy package to improve food security.
Adenäuer, Marcel; Frezal, Clara; Chatzopoulos, Thomas;2023
Availability: Link
3. The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets
abstractInternational grain prices experienced a sharp increase during the 2020/2021 marketing season, most likely due to the unprecedented increase of imported grains by China. What would be the possible impact on international grain markets if China remains a strong grain importer? The scenario developed to explore the impact of such a development shows that further increases in Chinese grain imports over the medium term could result in a 4% to 25% increase in agriculture commodity prices compared to what was projected in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.
Adenäuer, Marcel;2022
Type: Amtsdruckschrift; Government document;
Availability: Link
4. China's grain reserves, price support and import policies : examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios
abstractIn 2016, the People’s Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commodities. The analysis examines domestic and international market impacts over the next ten years by comparing a baseline (or business-as-usual scenario) with three scenarios that each assume support prices are eliminated but incorporate different assumptions about China’s import policies. To account for the uncertainty about China’s actual stock levels, the baseline and three scenarios are conducted under a minimum and maximum stock level assumption. The results show that the impacts will be most pronounced during the first years when temporary public stocks are depleted, with strong drops in domestic prices and reduced production. Over the medium term, domestic prices are projected to recover but will remain below baseline levels. The analysis also shows that even though the actual size of stocks has no significant impact over the medium term, its impact can be substantial during the first years a new policy is implemented, which underscores the importance of transparency when reporting on stock levels and stockholding policies.
Deuss, Annelies; Adenäuer, Marcel;2020
Type: Amtsdruckschrift; Government document; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:
Link 5. Nitrogen tax and set-aside as greenhouse gas abatement policies under global change scenarios : a case study for Germany
Henseler, Martin; Delzeit, Ruth; Adenäuer, Marcel; Baum, Sarah; Kreins, Peter;2020
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability:
Link Citations: 4 (based on OpenCitations)
6. Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global agricultural markets
Elleby, Christian; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Adenäuer, Marcel; Genovese, Giampiero;2020
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability:
Link Citations: 131 (based on OpenCitations)
7. Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets
abstractThe Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand.
Saunders, John T.; Adenäuer, Marcel; Brooks, Jonathan;2019
Type: Amtsdruckschrift; Government document; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability: Link
8. Nitrogen Tax and Set-Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany
Henseler, Martin; Delzeit, Ruth; Adenäuer, Marcel; Baum, Sarah; Kreins, Peter;2020
Type: Article;
Availability:
Link 9. Potential impact of dietary changes on the triple challenge facing food systems : Three stylised scenarios
abstractA shift towards healthier diets is expected to address the challenge of providing food security and nutrition for a growing global population. This report explores whether such a shift would also have positive effects on the other two challenges food systems face: supporting livelihoods for those working along the food supply chain and contributing to environmental sustainability. The report finds that aligning diets with World Health Organisation guidelines on sugar and fat consumption would have the expected positive effect on nutrition and food security, and would also positively affect environmental sustainability. The effect on livelihoods along the food value chain, however, would overall be negative. The magnitude of the trade-offs and synergies are greater when fat consumption is reduced, as opposed to sugar consumption, because actual consumption levels of fat are further away from WHO recommendations.
Tallard, Grégoire; Adenäuer, Marcel; Deconinck, Koen; Gouarin, Gaëlle;2022
Type: Amtsdruckschrift; Government document;
Availability: Link
10. Potential macroeconomic impact of the Covid ‐19 pandemic on food demand
Gay, Stephan Hubertus; Adenäuer, Marcel; Frezal, Clara;2020
Availability: Link
Citations: 2 (based on OpenCitations)