66 records from EconBiz based on author Name

1. The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

Frejka, Tomas;
2016
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link

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2. Future fertility in low fertility countries

abstract

This paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

Basten, Stuart; Sobotka, Tomáš; Zeman, Kryštof; Abbasi-Shavazi, M. Jalal; Adserà, Alícia; Van Bavel, Jan; Berghammer, Caroline; Kim, Minja; Frejka, Tomas; Leridon, Henri; Mills, Melinda; Morgan, S. Philip; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Rosero-Bixby, Louis; Rotkirch, Anna; Sanderson, Warren C.; Testa, Maria Rita; Thévenon, Olivier; Zhao, Zhongwei;
2013
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link

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3. Comprehensive analyses of fertility trends in the Russian Federation during the past half century

Frejka, Tomas; Zacharov, Sergej V.;
2012
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link

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4. Postponement and recuperation in cohort fertility : new analytical and projection methods and their application

Sobotka, Tomáš; Zeman, Kryštof; Lesthaeghe, Ron J.; Frejka, Tomas;
2011
Type: Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature; Arbeitspapier; Working Paper;
Availability:

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5. Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

Frejka, Tomas; Gietel-Basten, Stuart;
2016
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link

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6. Birth cohort overlays of changing childbearing patterns : a unique proximate fertility determinant with unexpected tempo effects

Frejka, Tomas;
2010
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability:

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7. AlejandroPortes and Ariel C.Armony, with the collaboration of Bryan Lagae The Global Edge: Miami in the Twenty‐First CenturyOakland, California: University of California Press, 2018. 250 p. $85.00 (Paperback $29.95)

Frejka, Tomas;
2019
Availability: Link

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8. The apparent failure of Russia's pronatalist family policies

Frejka, Tomas; Zacharov, Sergej V.;
2013
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;

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9. Comprehensive analyses of fertility trends in the Russian Federation during the past half century

Frejka, Tomas; Zakharov, Sergei;
2012
Availability:

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10. Fertility Austria : past, present and the near future

abstract

In the European context Austria's population has a tradition of low fertility. Between the world wars of the 20th century Austria had the lowest fertility in Europe. It recovered most notably during the 1950s and early 1960s, but has been declining ever since. Contemporary childbearing trends and patterns are characterised by a continuing delay in childbearing which started with women born in the late 1940s. Women born during the 1970s had lower fertility than any previous cohorts. Whether they were postponing their births and/or many of them deciding not to have any children remains to be seen. In the cohorts of the mid- to late 1960s only about three-quarters of all women had a first birth and around one-quarter of Austrian women remained childless. This is one of the highest known proportions of childless women in Europe. At the turn of the century ideal and actual expected family size were among the lowest in Europe, 1.7 and 1.5 children per couple, respectively. Childbearing behaviour of its young inhabitants suggests that Austria will reassume the tradition of having one of the lowest fertility levels in Europe during the initial years, possibly decades, of the 21st century. If these low fertility levels were to persist, a considerable decline in population size as well as rapid population ageing are inevitable implying the need for societal and policy adjustments.

Frejka, Tomas; Sardon, Jean-Paul;
2003
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link

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