77 records from EconBiz based on author Name

1. Future fertility in low fertility countries

abstract

This paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

Basten, Stuart; Sobotka, Tomáš; Zeman, Kryštof; Abbasi-Shavazi, M. Jalal; Adserà, Alícia; Van Bavel, Jan; Berghammer, Caroline; Kim, Minja; Frejka, Tomas; Leridon, Henri; Mills, Melinda; Morgan, S. Philip; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Rosero-Bixby, Louis; Rotkirch, Anna; Sanderson, Warren C.; Testa, Maria Rita; Thévenon, Olivier; Zhao, Zhongwei;
2013
Type: Arbeitspapier; Working Paper; Graue Literatur; Non-commercial literature;
Availability: Link

---

2. Le devenir de 20 000 enfants. Lancement de l’étude de cohorte Elfe

Charles, Marie-Aline; Leridon, Henri; Dargent, Patricia; Geay, Bertrand; Elfe, l'équipe;
2011
Availability:

---

3. Tracking the lives of 20,000 children - Launch of the Elfe child cohort study

Charles, Marie-Aline; Leridon, Henri; Dargent, Patricia; Geay, Bertrand; Elfe, l'équipe;
2011
Availability:

---

4. La construction d'une cohorte : l'expérience du projet français Elfe

Pirus, Claudine; Bois, Corinne; Dufourg, Marie-Noëlle; Lanoë, Jean-Louis; Vandentorren, Stéphanie; Leridon, Henri; et l’équipe Elfe;
2010
Availability: Link Link

---

5. Les grandes cohortes d'enfants dans le monde

Pirus, Claudine; Leridon, Henri;
2010
Availability: Link Link

---

6. L’espèce humaine a-t-elle un problème de fertilité?

Leridon, Henri;
2010
Availability:

---

7. Human fecundity: situation and outlook

Leridon, Henri;
2010
Availability:

---

8. Da la croissance zéro au développement durable

Leridon, Henri;
2009

---

9. La loi Neuwirth quarante ans après : une révolution inachevée ?

Régnier-Loilier, Arnaud; Leridon, Henri; Cahen, Fabrice;
2007
Availability:

---

10. Four decades of legalized contraception in France: an unfinished revolution?

Régnier-Loilier, Arnaud; Leridon, Henri; Cahen, Fabrice;
2007
Availability:

---

Load More