59 records from EconBiz based on author Name

1. Bars, lines and points : the effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting

Reimers, Stian; Harvey, Nigel;
2024
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link

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2. Are Lay Expectations of Inflation Based on Recall of Specific Prices? If so, How and Under What Conditions?

abstract

Do people estimate current and future inflation by recalling how prices for specific products have changed? In an experiment carried out in 2019 when inflation was low and stable, we compared people’s direct estimates of inflation with indirect estimates obtained by averaging their estimates of price changes in all 12 product categories on which the consumer price index is based. Indirect estimates were much higher than direct ones and the two types of estimate were uncorrelated. This is consistent with a price-free model in which direct estimates are not based on recall of prices but are determined by other information such as media reports. A second experiment was carried out in May 2022 when inflation was high, expected to rise in the short-term, but highly unpredictable in the longer term. Direct and indirect estimates were very similar and highly correlated. This is consistent with a price-recall model in which a representative set of prices is used to estimate overall inflation. A third experiment was carried out in September 2022 when inflation was generally high and fairly stable except for certain product categories (food) where prices were rising rapidly. Results were consistent with a third approach, the price-salience model, in which overall estimates of inflation are selectively influenced by price rises in those product categories where they are particularly high. The cognitive strategy used to estimate inflation appears adapted to the inflation environment at the time: the less predictable that prices in different product categories are, the more effort consumers put into monitoring those prices in order to estimate overall inflation

Niu, Xiaoxiao; Harvey, Nigel;
2023
Availability: Link Link

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3. Incorporating external factors into time series forecasts

Baets, Shari de; Harvey, Nigel;
2023
Type: Aufsatz im Buch; Book section;
Availability: Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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4. Are lay expectations of inflation based on recall of specific prices? : if so, how and under what conditions?

Niu, Xiaoxiao; Harvey, Nigel;
2023
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link

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5. Forecasting : theory and practice

Petropoulos, Fotios; Apiletti, Daniele; Assimakopoulos, V.; Babai, M. Zied; Barrow, Devon K.; Ben Taieb, Souhaib; Bergmeir, Christoph; Bessa, Ricardo J.; Bijak, Jakub; Boylan, John E.; Browell, Jethro; Carnevale, Claudio; Castle, Jennifer; Cirillo, Pasquale; Clements, Michael P.; Cordeiro, Clara; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino; Baets, Shari de; Dokumentov, Alexander; Ellison, Joanne; Fiszeder, Piotr; Franses, Philip Hans; Frazier, David T.; Gilliland, Michael; Gönül, M. Sinan; Goodwin, Paul; Grossi, Luigi; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Guidolin, Mariangela; Guidolin, Massimo; Gunter, Ulrich; Guo, Xiaojia; Guseo, Renato; Harvey, Nigel; Hendry, David F.; Hollyman, Ross; Januschowski, Tim; Jeon, Jooyoung; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Kang, Yanfei; Koehler, Anne B.; Kolassa, Stephan; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Leva, Sonia; Li, Feng; Litsiou, Konstantia; Makridakis, Spyros G.; Martin, Gael M.; Martinez, Andrew B.; Meeran, Sheik; Modis, Theodore; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Önkal, Dilek; Paccagnini, Alessia; Panagiotelis, Anastasios; Panapakidis, Ioannis; Pavia, José Manuel; Pedio, Manuela; Pedregal, Diego J.; Pinson, Pierre; Ramos, Patrícia; Rapach, David E.; Reade, J. James; Rostami-Tabar, Bahman; Rubaszek, Michał; Sermpinis, Georgios; Shang, Han Lin; Spiliotis, Evangelos; Syntetos, Aris A.; Talagala, Priyanga Dilini; Talagala, Thiyanga S.; Tashman, Len; Thomakos, Dimitrios D.; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Todini, Ezio; Trapero Arenas, Juan Ramón; Wang, Xiaoqian; Winkler, Robert L.; Yusupova, Alisa; Ziel, Florian;
2022
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
Citations: 163 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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6. Context effects in inflation surveys : the influence of additional information and prior questions

Niu, Xiaoxiao; Harvey, Nigel;
2022
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
Citations: 3 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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7. Buy, sell, or hold? : a sense-making account of factors influencing trading decisions

abstract

We investigated the effects of news valence, the direction of trends in graphically presented price series, and the culture and personality of traders in a financial trading task. Participants were given 12 virtual shares of financial assets and asked to use price graphs and news items to maximize their returns by buying, selling, or holding each one. In making their decisions, they were influenced by properties of both news items and price series but they relied more on the former. Western participants had lower trading latencies and lower return dispersions than Eastern participants. Those with greater openness to experience had lower trading latencies. Participants bought more shares when they forecast that prices would rise but failed to sell more when they forecast that they would fall. These findings are all consistent with the view that people trading assets try to make sense of information by incorporating it within a coherent narrative.

Sobolev, Daphne; Chan, Bryan; Harvey, Nigel;
2017
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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8. Using judgment to select and adjust forecasts from statistical models

Baets, Shari de; Harvey, Nigel;
2020
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
Citations: 22 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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9. When does more mean worse? : accuracy of judgmental forecasting is nonlinearly related to length of data series

Theocharis, Zoe; Harvey, Nigel;
2019
Type: Aufsatz in Zeitschrift; Article in journal;
Availability: Link
Citations: 6 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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10. Digital Identity : The Effect of Trust and Reputation Information on User Judgement in the Sharing Economy

abstract

The Sharing Economy (SE) is a growing ecosystem focusing on peer-to-peer enterprise. In the SE the information available to assist individuals (users) in making decisions focuses predominantly on community generated trust and reputation information. However, how such information impacts user judgement is still being understood. To explore such effects, we constructed an artificial SE accommodation platform where we varied the elements related to hosts' digital identity, measuring users' perceptions and decisions to interact. Across three studies, we find that trust and reputation information increases not only the users' perceived trustworthiness, credibility, and sociability of hosts, but also the propensity to rent a private room in their home. This effect is seen when providing users both with complete profiles and profiles with partial user-selected information. Closer investigations reveal that three elements relating to the host's digital identity are sufficient to produce such positive perceptions and increased rental decisions, regardless of which three elements are presented. Our findings have relevant implications for human judgment and privacy in the SE, and question its current culture of ever increasing information-sharing

Zloteanu, Mircea; Harvey, Nigel; Tuckett, David; Livan, Giacomo;
2018
Availability: Link Link
Citations: 1 (based on OpenCitations) Cited By

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